Intro -- Foreword -- Table of contents -- Editorial. The backlash against globalisation: What does it mean for employment policy? -- The populist backlash against globalisation fundamentally challenges employment policy -- Many of the concerns underpinning the backlash against globalisation are real -- Popular perceptions tend to exaggerate the role of trade in inequality, but new technologies have had an effect -- An integrated policy strategy is needed to better share the benefits of globalisation and new technologies -- Help workers to build the right skills and adapt them during their working lives -- Scale-up active employment programmes for laid-off workers and adapt social protection to the emergence of new forms of work -- Collective bargaining can contribute to worker-friendly adjustments to potentially disruptive change -- A resilient labour market is also a necessity -- The road ahead -- Acronyms and abbreviations -- Executive summary -- Employment policy must address the concerns underlying the populist backlash against globalisation -- Labour market performance needs to be understood broadly -- Labour market resilience in the wake of the crisis differed greatly across OECD countries -- Technological change and globalisation are transforming labour markets -- Collective bargaining is evolving quite rapidly in OECD labour markets -- Chapter 1. How are we doing? A broad assessment of labour market performance -- Key findings -- Introduction -- 1. Current labour market conditions and the short-term outlook -- Figure 1.1. The slow improvement of labour market conditions is projected to continue in a large number of OECD countries -- 2. Towards a broad assessment of labour market performance -- Labour market performance within the new OECD Jobs Strategy framework -- Table 1.1. The framework for the new OECD Jobs Strategy.

3. The quantity and quality of employment -- Jobs quantity -- Figure 1.2. Employment quantity and labour market slack, 2015 -- Jobs quality -- Figure 1.3. Employment and the components of job quality -- 4. Labour market inclusiveness -- Income disparities in the working-age population remain high -- Figure 1.4. Dispersion of the bottom end of the disposable income distribution -- Having more and better jobs is often the best way to avoid that people are left behind… -- Figure 1.5. Employment and low income rates -- … but countries with similar employment rates may still have very different incidences of low income -- Gender disparities in labour income are decreasing but remain considerable -- Employment of disadvantaged groups still lags behind in many countries -- Figure 1.6. Gender disparities in labour market income -- Figure 1.7. Employment gaps with respect to prime-age men for selected disadvantaged groups -- 5. A scoreboard of labour market performance in terms of job quantity, job quality and inclusiveness -- Table 1.2. Labour market performance scoreboard: Key indicators of job quantity, job quality and inclusiveness -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Database references -- Chapter 2. Labour market resilience: The role of structural and macroeconomic policies -- Key findings -- Introduction -- 1. Resilience in the wake of the Great Recession -- The OECD unemployment rate has returned to close to the pre-crisis level even though GDP remains well below the pre-crisis trend -- Figure 2.1. Output and unemployment developments in the OECD since the onset of the Great Recession -- Unemployment developments differed significantly across countries -- Figure 2.2. A number of OECD countries experienced persistent deviations of unemployment from the pre-crisis NAIRU.

Cross-country differences in the extent to which aggregate demand declines translated into unemployment increases mainly reflected differences in labour hoarding -- Figure 2.3. Declines in productivity, working time and participation dampened the impact on unemployment -- Adjustments in labour productivity were reflected in lower wages -- Figure 2.4. Lower labour productivity growth translated into lower real wage growth -- Box 2.1. The impact of the crisis on long-term and youth unemployment -- Figure 2.5. Persistent increases in long-term and youth unemployment -- 2. The policy determinants of labour market resilience -- The role of labour market policies and institutions for labour market resilience -- Box 2.2. Labour market policies and institutions: The empirical model -- Figure 2.6. The role of labour market policies and institutions for labour market resilience -- Box 2.3. Collective bargaining arrangements and firm-level adjustments during the Great Recession -- Figure 2.7. The role of collective bargaining arrangements for firm-level adjustments to the Great Recession -- The role of fiscal policy for labour market resilience -- Box 2.4. Fiscal policy: The empirical model -- Figure 2.8. Government spending stabilises aggregate demand during economic downturns -- Figure 2.9. Government spending reduces unemployment during economic downturns -- Figure 2.10. Government spending reduces long-term unemployment during economic downturns -- 3. The effects of labour market and fiscal policies for labour market resilience following the Great Recession -- Strict employment protection provisions for regular workers tended to reduce labour market resilience -- Figure 2.11. Strict employment protection provisions for regular workers tended to reduce resilience -- In most countries, fiscal policy contributed to labour market resilience.

Figure 2.12. Automatic fiscal stabilisers contributed to labour market resilience -- Box 2.5. The modulation of labour market policies over the business cycle -- Figure 2.13. The responsiveness of spending on labour market programmes to changes in unemployment -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Database references -- Chapter 3. How technology and globalisation are transforming the labour market -- Key findings -- Building skills for the future -- Activation and social protection measures to help people face disruptive changes -- Introduction -- 1. The changing structure of the labour market -- The labour market continues to polarise -- Figure 3.1. The labour market continues to polarise -- Technology and globalisation are advancing fast -- Figure 3.2. ICT has spread fast throughout the world -- Figure 3.3. Some sectors have increased their use of ICT particularly rapidly -- Figure 3.4. The rise of global value chains -- Box 3.1. Mapping global value chains: The TiVA dataset -- Figure 3.5. The rise of China -- The complex link between inequality and the labour market -- Figure 3.6. Inequality is rising, especially at the top -- 2. Estimating the effects of technology and globalisation on the labour market -- Clarifying the relationship between polarisation and de-industrialisation -- Figure 3.7. Polarisation has occurred in almost all industries -- Figure 3.8. The decline of manufacturing -- Table 3.1. Industrya contributions to within- and between-industry polarisation,b 1997 to 2007c -- Figure 3.9. In most countries, polarisation has largely reflected within-sector dynamics -- What drives polarisation within industries? -- Box 3.2. Estimating the effects of technology and globalisation on the labour market -- Table 3.2. Unpacking polarisation in manufacturing -- Table 3.3. Unpacking polarisation in non-manufacturing.

Table 3.4. The impacts of technology and globalisation on polarisation in different regions -- Table 3.5. The role of labour market institutions -- What drives de-industrialisation? -- Table 3.6. What has been driving the fall in manufacturing, and the rise of service sector employment? -- Box 3.3. The risk of automation in the next 10-20 years -- Figure 3.10. The risk of automation in OECD countries -- 3. Policy options to help workers withstand labour market transformations -- Building skills for the future -- Figure 3.11. Younger people are better prepared for the digital working environment than older people -- Activation and social protection to withstand disruptive change -- Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Database references -- Annex 3.A1. Additional evidence on polarisation -- Figure 3.A1.1. Job polarisation by country -- Figure 3.A1.2. Polarisation in Chinaa and Indiab -- Annex 3.A2. Estimates on selected countries, 2000-15 -- Table 3.A2.1. Unpacking polarisation, 2000-15, selected countries, manufacturing sector -- Table 3.A2.2. Unpacking polarisation, 2000-15, selected countries, services sector -- Chapter 4. Collective bargaining in a changing world of work -- Key findings -- Introduction -- 1. The functions and the features of collective bargaining -- The functions of collective bargaining -- The building blocks of collective bargaining -- Figure 4.1. The main building blocks of collective bargaining -- Box 4.1. The OECD policy questionnaires on collective bargaining -- 2. The actors and the scope of collective bargaining -- Trade unions density -- Figure 4.2. Trends in union density -- Figure 4.3. Trade union density by group, 2013 -- Employer and business organisations -- Figure 4.4. Employer organisation density -- Collective bargaining coverage -- Figure 4.5. Trends in collective bargaining coverage rate.

Figure 4.6. Collective bargaining coverage rate by industry and firm size.

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