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Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction.

Av: Medverkande: Materialtyp: TextUtgivningsuppgift: Newark : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, 2018Datum för upphovsrätt: ©2017Utgåva: 3rd edBeskrivning: 1 online resource (529 pages)Innehållstyp:
  • text
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  • computer
Bärartyp:
  • online resource
ISBN:
  • 9781119266075
Ämnen: Genre/form: DDK-klassifikation:
  • 624.171
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Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- Preface to the Second Edition -- Preface to the First Edition -- Acknowledgements -- Chapter 1 Measures of Structural Reliability -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Deterministic Measures of Limit State Violation -- 1.2.1 Factor of Safety -- 1.2.2 Load Factor -- 1.2.3 Partial Factor ('Limit State Design') -- 1.2.4 A Deficiency in Some Safety Measures: Lack of Invariance -- 1.2.5 Invariant Safety Measures -- 1.3 A Partial Probabilistic Safety Measure of Limit State Violation-The Return Period -- 1.4 Probabilistic Measure of Limit State Violation -- 1.4.1 Introduction -- 1.4.2 The Basic Reliability Problem -- 1.4.3 Special Case: Normal Random Variables -- 1.4.4 Safety Factors and Characteristic Values -- 1.4.5 Numerical Integration of the Convolution Integral -- 1.5 Generalized Reliability Problem -- 1.5.1 Basic Variables -- 1.5.2 Generalized Limit State Equations -- 1.5.3 Generalized Reliability Problem Formulation -- 1.5.4 Conditional Reliability Problems* -- 1.6 Conclusion -- Chapter 2 Structural Reliability Assessment -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Uncertainties in Reliability Assessment -- 2.2.1 Identification of Uncertainties -- 2.2.2 Phenomenological Uncertainty -- 2.2.3 Decision Uncertainty -- 2.2.4 Modelling Uncertainty -- 2.2.5 Prediction Uncertainty -- 2.2.6 Physical Uncertainty -- 2.2.7 Statistical Uncertainty -- 2.2.8 Uncertainties Due to Human Factors -- 2.2.8.1 Human Error -- 2.2.8.2 Human Intervention -- 2.2.8.3 Modelling of Human Error and Intervention -- 2.2.8.4 Quality Assurance -- 2.2.8.5 Hazard Management -- 2.3 Integrated Risk Assessment -- 2.3.1 Calculation of the Probability of Failure -- 2.3.2 Analysis and Prediction -- 2.3.3 Comparison to Failure Data -- 2.3.4 Validation-a Philosophical Issue -- 2.3.5 The Tail Sensitivity 'Problem' -- 2.4 Criteria for Risk Acceptability.
2.4.1 Acceptable Risk Criterion -- 2.4.1.1 Risks in Society -- 2.4.1.2 Acceptable or Tolerable Risk Levels -- 2.4.2 Socio‐economic Criterion -- 2.5 Nominal Probability of Failure -- 2.5.1 General -- 2.5.2 Axiomatic Definition -- 2.5.3 Influence of Gross and Other Errors -- 2.5.4 Practical Implications -- 2.5.5 Target Values for Nominal Failure Probability -- 2.6 Hierarchy of Structural Reliability Measures -- 2.7 Conclusion -- Chapter 3 Integration and Simulation Methods -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Direct and Numerical Integration -- 3.3 Monte Carlo Simulation -- 3.3.1 Introduction -- 3.3.2 Generation of Uniformly Distributed Random Numbers -- 3.3.3 Generation of Random Variates -- 3.3.4 Direct Sampling ('Crude' Monte Carlo) -- 3.3.5 Number of Samples Required -- 3.3.6 Variance Reduction -- 3.3.7 Stratified and Latin Hypercube Sampling -- 3.4 Importance Sampling -- 3.4.1 Theory of Importance Sampling -- 3.4.2 Importance Sampling Functions -- 3.4.3 Observations About Importance Sampling Functions -- 3.4.4 Improved Sampling Functions -- 3.4.5 Search or Adaptive Techniques -- 3.4.6 Sensitivity -- 3.5 Directional Simulation* -- 3.5.1 Basic Notions -- 3.5.2 Directional Simulation with Importance Sampling -- 3.5.3 Generalized Directional Simulation -- 3.5.4 Directional Simulation in the Load Space -- 3.5.4.1 Basic Concept -- 3.5.4.2 Variation of Strength with Radial Direction -- 3.5.4.3 Line Sampling -- 3.6 Practical Aspects of Monte Carlo Simulation -- 3.6.1 Conditional Expectation -- 3.6.2 Generalized Limit State Function - Response Surfaces -- 3.6.3 Systematic Selection of Random Variables -- 3.6.4 Applications -- 3.7 Conclusion -- Chapter 4 Second‐Moment and Transformation Methods -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Second‐Moment Concepts -- 4.3 First‐Order Second‐Moment (FOSM) Theory -- 4.3.1 The Hasofer-Lind Transformation -- 4.3.2 Linear Limit State Function.
4.3.3 Sensitivity Factors and Gradient Projection -- 4.3.4 Non‐Linear Limit State Function-General Case -- 4.3.5 Non‐Linear Limit State Function-Numerical Solution -- 4.3.6 Non‐Linear Limit State Function-HLRF Algorithm -- 4.3.7 Geometric Interpretation of Iterative Solution Scheme -- 4.3.8 Interpretation of First‐Order Second‐Moment (FOSM) Theory -- 4.3.9 General Limit State Functions-Probability Bounds -- 4.4 The First‐Order Reliability (FOR) Method -- 4.4.1 Simple Transformations -- 4.4.2 The Normal Tail Transformation -- 4.4.3 Transformations to Independent Normal Basic Variables -- 4.4.3.1 Rosenblatt Transformation -- 4.4.3.2 Nataf Transformation -- 4.4.4 Algorithm for First‐Order Reliability (FOR) Method -- 4.4.5 Observations -- 4.4.6 Asymptotic Formulation -- 4.5 Second‐Order Reliability (SOR) Methods -- 4.5.1 Basic Concept -- 4.5.2 Evaluation Through Sampling -- 4.5.3 Evaluation Through Asymptotic Approximation -- 4.6 Application of FOSM/FOR/SOR Methods -- 4.7 Mean Value Methods -- 4.8 Conclusion -- Chapter 5 Reliability of Structural Systems -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Systems Reliability Fundamentals -- 5.2.1 Structural System Modelling -- 5.2.1.1 Load Modelling -- 5.2.1.2 Material Modelling -- 5.2.1.3 System Modelling -- 5.2.2 Solution Approaches -- 5.2.2.1 Failure Mode Approach -- 5.2.2.2 Survival Mode Approach -- 5.2.2.3 Upper and Lower Bounds-Plastic Theory -- 5.2.3 Idealizations of Structural Systems -- 5.2.3.1 Series Systems -- 5.2.3.2 Parallel Systems-General -- 5.2.3.3 Parallel Systems-Ideal Plastic -- 5.2.3.4 Combined and Conditional Systems -- 5.3 Monte Carlo Techniques for Systems -- 5.3.1 General Remarks -- 5.3.2 Importance Sampling -- 5.3.2.1 Series Systems -- 5.3.2.2 Parallel Systems -- 5.3.2.3 Search‐Type Approaches in Importance Sampling -- 5.3.2.4 Failure Modes Identification in Importance Sampling.
5.3.3 Directional Simulation -- 5.3.4 Directional Simulation in the Load Space -- 5.4 System Reliability Bounds -- 5.4.1 First‐Order Series Bounds -- 5.4.2 Second‐Order Series Bounds -- 5.4.3 Second‐Order Series Bounds by Loading Sequences -- 5.4.4 Series Bounds by Modes and Loading Sequences -- 5.4.5 Improved Series Bounds and Parallel System Bounds -- 5.4.6 First‐Order Second‐Moment Method in Systems Reliability -- 5.4.7 Correlation Effects -- 5.4.8 Bounds by Matrix Operations and Linear Programming* -- 5.5 Implicit Limit States -- 5.5.1 Introduction -- 5.5.2 Response Surfaces -- 5.5.2.1 Basics of Response Surfaces -- 5.5.2.2 Fitting the Response Surface -- 5.5.3 Applications of Response Surfaces -- 5.5.4 Other Techniques for Obtaining Surrogate Limit States -- 5.6 Functionally Dependent Limit States -- 5.6.1 Effect of Order of Loading -- 5.6.2 Failure Mode Enumeration and Reduction -- 5.6.3 Reduction of Number of Limit States-Truncation -- 5.6.4 Applications -- 5.7 Conclusion -- Chapter 6 Time‐Dependent Reliability -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Time‐Integrated Approach -- 6.2.1 Basic Notions -- 6.2.2 Conversion to a Time‐Independent Format* -- 6.3 Discretized Approach -- 6.3.1 Known Number of Discrete Events -- 6.3.2 Random Number of Discrete Events -- 6.3.3 Return Period -- 6.3.4 Hazard Function -- 6.4 Stochastic Process Theory -- 6.4.1 Stochastic Process -- 6.4.2 Stationary Processes -- 6.4.3 Derivative Process -- 6.4.4 Ergodic Processes -- 6.4.5 First‐Passage Probability -- 6.4.6 Distribution of Local Maxima -- 6.5 Stochastic Processes and Outcrossings -- 6.5.1 Discrete Processes -- 6.5.1.1 Borges Processes -- 6.5.1.2 Poisson Counting Process -- 6.5.1.3 Filtered Poisson process -- 6.5.1.4 Poisson Spike Process -- 6.5.1.5 Poisson Square Wave Process -- 6.5.1.6 Renewal Processes -- 6.5.2 Continuous Processes.
6.5.3 Barrier (or Level) Upcrossing Rate -- 6.5.4 Outcrossing Rate -- 6.5.4.1 Generalization from Barrier Crossing Rate -- 6.5.4.2 Outcrossings for Discrete Processes -- 6.5.4.3 Outcrossings for Continuous Gaussian Processes -- 6.5.4.4 General Regions and Processes -- 6.5.5 Numerical Evaluation of Outcrossing Rates -- 6.6 Time‐Dependent Reliability -- 6.6.1 Introduction -- 6.6.2 Sampling Methods for Unconditional Failure Probability -- 6.6.2.1 Importance and Conditional Sampling -- 6.6.2.2 Directional Simulation in the Load Process Space -- 6.6.3 FOSM/FOR Methods for Unconditional Failure Probability -- 6.6.4 Summary for Time‐Dependent Reliability Estimation -- 6.7 Load Combinations -- 6.7.1 Introduction -- 6.7.2 General Formulation -- 6.7.3 Discrete Processes -- 6.7.4 Simplifications -- 6.7.4.1 Load Coincidence Method -- 6.7.4.2 Borges Processes -- 6.7.4.3 Deterministic Load Combination-Turkstra's Rule -- 6.8 Ensemble Crossing Rate and Barrier Failure Dominance -- 6.8.1 Introduction -- 6.8.2 Ensemble Crossing Rate Approximation -- 6.8.3 Application to Turkstra's Rule and the Point Crossing Formula -- 6.8.4 Barrier Failure Dominance -- 6.8.5 Validity -- 6.9 Dynamic Analysis of Structures -- 6.9.1 Introduction -- 6.9.2 Frequency Domain Analysis -- 6.9.3 Reliability Analysis -- 6.10 Fatigue Analysis -- 6.10.1 General Formulation -- 6.10.2 The S‐N Model -- 6.10.3 Fracture Mechanics Models -- 6.11 Conclusion -- Chapter 7 Load and Load Effect Modelling -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Wind Loading -- 7.3 Wave Loading -- 7.4 Floor Loading -- 7.4.1 General -- 7.4.2 Sustained Load Representation -- 7.4.3 Equivalent Uniformly Distributed Load -- 7.4.4 Distribution of Equivalent Uniformly Distributed Load -- 7.4.5 Maximum (Lifetime) Sustained Load -- 7.4.6 Extraordinary Live Loads -- 7.4.7 Total Live Load -- 7.4.8 Permanent and Construction Loads -- 7.5 Conclusion.
Chapter 8 Resistance Modelling.
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Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- Preface to the Second Edition -- Preface to the First Edition -- Acknowledgements -- Chapter 1 Measures of Structural Reliability -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Deterministic Measures of Limit State Violation -- 1.2.1 Factor of Safety -- 1.2.2 Load Factor -- 1.2.3 Partial Factor ('Limit State Design') -- 1.2.4 A Deficiency in Some Safety Measures: Lack of Invariance -- 1.2.5 Invariant Safety Measures -- 1.3 A Partial Probabilistic Safety Measure of Limit State Violation-The Return Period -- 1.4 Probabilistic Measure of Limit State Violation -- 1.4.1 Introduction -- 1.4.2 The Basic Reliability Problem -- 1.4.3 Special Case: Normal Random Variables -- 1.4.4 Safety Factors and Characteristic Values -- 1.4.5 Numerical Integration of the Convolution Integral -- 1.5 Generalized Reliability Problem -- 1.5.1 Basic Variables -- 1.5.2 Generalized Limit State Equations -- 1.5.3 Generalized Reliability Problem Formulation -- 1.5.4 Conditional Reliability Problems* -- 1.6 Conclusion -- Chapter 2 Structural Reliability Assessment -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Uncertainties in Reliability Assessment -- 2.2.1 Identification of Uncertainties -- 2.2.2 Phenomenological Uncertainty -- 2.2.3 Decision Uncertainty -- 2.2.4 Modelling Uncertainty -- 2.2.5 Prediction Uncertainty -- 2.2.6 Physical Uncertainty -- 2.2.7 Statistical Uncertainty -- 2.2.8 Uncertainties Due to Human Factors -- 2.2.8.1 Human Error -- 2.2.8.2 Human Intervention -- 2.2.8.3 Modelling of Human Error and Intervention -- 2.2.8.4 Quality Assurance -- 2.2.8.5 Hazard Management -- 2.3 Integrated Risk Assessment -- 2.3.1 Calculation of the Probability of Failure -- 2.3.2 Analysis and Prediction -- 2.3.3 Comparison to Failure Data -- 2.3.4 Validation-a Philosophical Issue -- 2.3.5 The Tail Sensitivity 'Problem' -- 2.4 Criteria for Risk Acceptability.

2.4.1 Acceptable Risk Criterion -- 2.4.1.1 Risks in Society -- 2.4.1.2 Acceptable or Tolerable Risk Levels -- 2.4.2 Socio‐economic Criterion -- 2.5 Nominal Probability of Failure -- 2.5.1 General -- 2.5.2 Axiomatic Definition -- 2.5.3 Influence of Gross and Other Errors -- 2.5.4 Practical Implications -- 2.5.5 Target Values for Nominal Failure Probability -- 2.6 Hierarchy of Structural Reliability Measures -- 2.7 Conclusion -- Chapter 3 Integration and Simulation Methods -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Direct and Numerical Integration -- 3.3 Monte Carlo Simulation -- 3.3.1 Introduction -- 3.3.2 Generation of Uniformly Distributed Random Numbers -- 3.3.3 Generation of Random Variates -- 3.3.4 Direct Sampling ('Crude' Monte Carlo) -- 3.3.5 Number of Samples Required -- 3.3.6 Variance Reduction -- 3.3.7 Stratified and Latin Hypercube Sampling -- 3.4 Importance Sampling -- 3.4.1 Theory of Importance Sampling -- 3.4.2 Importance Sampling Functions -- 3.4.3 Observations About Importance Sampling Functions -- 3.4.4 Improved Sampling Functions -- 3.4.5 Search or Adaptive Techniques -- 3.4.6 Sensitivity -- 3.5 Directional Simulation* -- 3.5.1 Basic Notions -- 3.5.2 Directional Simulation with Importance Sampling -- 3.5.3 Generalized Directional Simulation -- 3.5.4 Directional Simulation in the Load Space -- 3.5.4.1 Basic Concept -- 3.5.4.2 Variation of Strength with Radial Direction -- 3.5.4.3 Line Sampling -- 3.6 Practical Aspects of Monte Carlo Simulation -- 3.6.1 Conditional Expectation -- 3.6.2 Generalized Limit State Function - Response Surfaces -- 3.6.3 Systematic Selection of Random Variables -- 3.6.4 Applications -- 3.7 Conclusion -- Chapter 4 Second‐Moment and Transformation Methods -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Second‐Moment Concepts -- 4.3 First‐Order Second‐Moment (FOSM) Theory -- 4.3.1 The Hasofer-Lind Transformation -- 4.3.2 Linear Limit State Function.

4.3.3 Sensitivity Factors and Gradient Projection -- 4.3.4 Non‐Linear Limit State Function-General Case -- 4.3.5 Non‐Linear Limit State Function-Numerical Solution -- 4.3.6 Non‐Linear Limit State Function-HLRF Algorithm -- 4.3.7 Geometric Interpretation of Iterative Solution Scheme -- 4.3.8 Interpretation of First‐Order Second‐Moment (FOSM) Theory -- 4.3.9 General Limit State Functions-Probability Bounds -- 4.4 The First‐Order Reliability (FOR) Method -- 4.4.1 Simple Transformations -- 4.4.2 The Normal Tail Transformation -- 4.4.3 Transformations to Independent Normal Basic Variables -- 4.4.3.1 Rosenblatt Transformation -- 4.4.3.2 Nataf Transformation -- 4.4.4 Algorithm for First‐Order Reliability (FOR) Method -- 4.4.5 Observations -- 4.4.6 Asymptotic Formulation -- 4.5 Second‐Order Reliability (SOR) Methods -- 4.5.1 Basic Concept -- 4.5.2 Evaluation Through Sampling -- 4.5.3 Evaluation Through Asymptotic Approximation -- 4.6 Application of FOSM/FOR/SOR Methods -- 4.7 Mean Value Methods -- 4.8 Conclusion -- Chapter 5 Reliability of Structural Systems -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Systems Reliability Fundamentals -- 5.2.1 Structural System Modelling -- 5.2.1.1 Load Modelling -- 5.2.1.2 Material Modelling -- 5.2.1.3 System Modelling -- 5.2.2 Solution Approaches -- 5.2.2.1 Failure Mode Approach -- 5.2.2.2 Survival Mode Approach -- 5.2.2.3 Upper and Lower Bounds-Plastic Theory -- 5.2.3 Idealizations of Structural Systems -- 5.2.3.1 Series Systems -- 5.2.3.2 Parallel Systems-General -- 5.2.3.3 Parallel Systems-Ideal Plastic -- 5.2.3.4 Combined and Conditional Systems -- 5.3 Monte Carlo Techniques for Systems -- 5.3.1 General Remarks -- 5.3.2 Importance Sampling -- 5.3.2.1 Series Systems -- 5.3.2.2 Parallel Systems -- 5.3.2.3 Search‐Type Approaches in Importance Sampling -- 5.3.2.4 Failure Modes Identification in Importance Sampling.

5.3.3 Directional Simulation -- 5.3.4 Directional Simulation in the Load Space -- 5.4 System Reliability Bounds -- 5.4.1 First‐Order Series Bounds -- 5.4.2 Second‐Order Series Bounds -- 5.4.3 Second‐Order Series Bounds by Loading Sequences -- 5.4.4 Series Bounds by Modes and Loading Sequences -- 5.4.5 Improved Series Bounds and Parallel System Bounds -- 5.4.6 First‐Order Second‐Moment Method in Systems Reliability -- 5.4.7 Correlation Effects -- 5.4.8 Bounds by Matrix Operations and Linear Programming* -- 5.5 Implicit Limit States -- 5.5.1 Introduction -- 5.5.2 Response Surfaces -- 5.5.2.1 Basics of Response Surfaces -- 5.5.2.2 Fitting the Response Surface -- 5.5.3 Applications of Response Surfaces -- 5.5.4 Other Techniques for Obtaining Surrogate Limit States -- 5.6 Functionally Dependent Limit States -- 5.6.1 Effect of Order of Loading -- 5.6.2 Failure Mode Enumeration and Reduction -- 5.6.3 Reduction of Number of Limit States-Truncation -- 5.6.4 Applications -- 5.7 Conclusion -- Chapter 6 Time‐Dependent Reliability -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Time‐Integrated Approach -- 6.2.1 Basic Notions -- 6.2.2 Conversion to a Time‐Independent Format* -- 6.3 Discretized Approach -- 6.3.1 Known Number of Discrete Events -- 6.3.2 Random Number of Discrete Events -- 6.3.3 Return Period -- 6.3.4 Hazard Function -- 6.4 Stochastic Process Theory -- 6.4.1 Stochastic Process -- 6.4.2 Stationary Processes -- 6.4.3 Derivative Process -- 6.4.4 Ergodic Processes -- 6.4.5 First‐Passage Probability -- 6.4.6 Distribution of Local Maxima -- 6.5 Stochastic Processes and Outcrossings -- 6.5.1 Discrete Processes -- 6.5.1.1 Borges Processes -- 6.5.1.2 Poisson Counting Process -- 6.5.1.3 Filtered Poisson process -- 6.5.1.4 Poisson Spike Process -- 6.5.1.5 Poisson Square Wave Process -- 6.5.1.6 Renewal Processes -- 6.5.2 Continuous Processes.

6.5.3 Barrier (or Level) Upcrossing Rate -- 6.5.4 Outcrossing Rate -- 6.5.4.1 Generalization from Barrier Crossing Rate -- 6.5.4.2 Outcrossings for Discrete Processes -- 6.5.4.3 Outcrossings for Continuous Gaussian Processes -- 6.5.4.4 General Regions and Processes -- 6.5.5 Numerical Evaluation of Outcrossing Rates -- 6.6 Time‐Dependent Reliability -- 6.6.1 Introduction -- 6.6.2 Sampling Methods for Unconditional Failure Probability -- 6.6.2.1 Importance and Conditional Sampling -- 6.6.2.2 Directional Simulation in the Load Process Space -- 6.6.3 FOSM/FOR Methods for Unconditional Failure Probability -- 6.6.4 Summary for Time‐Dependent Reliability Estimation -- 6.7 Load Combinations -- 6.7.1 Introduction -- 6.7.2 General Formulation -- 6.7.3 Discrete Processes -- 6.7.4 Simplifications -- 6.7.4.1 Load Coincidence Method -- 6.7.4.2 Borges Processes -- 6.7.4.3 Deterministic Load Combination-Turkstra's Rule -- 6.8 Ensemble Crossing Rate and Barrier Failure Dominance -- 6.8.1 Introduction -- 6.8.2 Ensemble Crossing Rate Approximation -- 6.8.3 Application to Turkstra's Rule and the Point Crossing Formula -- 6.8.4 Barrier Failure Dominance -- 6.8.5 Validity -- 6.9 Dynamic Analysis of Structures -- 6.9.1 Introduction -- 6.9.2 Frequency Domain Analysis -- 6.9.3 Reliability Analysis -- 6.10 Fatigue Analysis -- 6.10.1 General Formulation -- 6.10.2 The S‐N Model -- 6.10.3 Fracture Mechanics Models -- 6.11 Conclusion -- Chapter 7 Load and Load Effect Modelling -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Wind Loading -- 7.3 Wave Loading -- 7.4 Floor Loading -- 7.4.1 General -- 7.4.2 Sustained Load Representation -- 7.4.3 Equivalent Uniformly Distributed Load -- 7.4.4 Distribution of Equivalent Uniformly Distributed Load -- 7.4.5 Maximum (Lifetime) Sustained Load -- 7.4.6 Extraordinary Live Loads -- 7.4.7 Total Live Load -- 7.4.8 Permanent and Construction Loads -- 7.5 Conclusion.

Chapter 8 Resistance Modelling.

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